Knowing how to read football odds is the most useful skill in betting, and it takes about five minutes to learn. Nigerian bookmakers, and most tips sites including ours, show odds in decimal form: 1.45, 2.10, 3.40 and so on. This guide shows you how to work out your return, what the odds say about a team’s chances, and how to tell a fair price from a poor one.
How to read football odds: the return
Decimal odds tell you how much you get back for every 1 you stake, including the stake itself. The formula is simple:
Return = stake × odds
| Stake | Odds | Total return | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| ₦1,000 | 1.30 | ₦1,300 | ₦300 |
| ₦1,000 | 1.75 | ₦1,750 | ₦750 |
| ₦1,000 | 2.00 | ₦2,000 | ₦1,000 |
| ₦1,000 | 3.50 | ₦3,500 | ₦2,500 |
Odds of 2.00 double your money. Anything below 2.00 means the bookmaker thinks the outcome is more likely than not; anything above 2.00 means less likely.
Turning odds into probability
You can turn any decimal odds into a rough probability with one division:
Implied probability = 1 ÷ odds
| Odds | Implied chance | Roughly loses |
|---|---|---|
| 1.10 | 91% | 1 time in 11 |
| 1.25 | 80% | 1 time in 5 |
| 1.50 | 67% | 1 time in 3 |
| 2.00 | 50% | 1 time in 2 |
| 4.00 | 25% | 3 times in 4 |
This is the most important idea in this article. A tip at 1.25 is priced as an 80% chance. That sounds strong, but it also means it should lose about one time in five. Short odds are not “sure”, and anyone who treats them as sure will eventually be disappointed.
The bookmaker’s margin
Add up the implied probabilities for all three results in a match and you’ll always get more than 100%. For example:
- Home win at 1.80 = 56%
- Draw at 3.60 = 28%
- Away win at 4.50 = 22%
That adds up to 106%. The extra 6% is the bookmaker’s margin, sometimes called the overround. It’s how bookmakers make money whatever the result. The lower the margin, the better the deal for you, which is why it pays to compare odds between bookmakers. A difference of 1.80 against 1.86 looks small, but over a hundred bets it adds up.
How accumulator odds work
When you put several selections on one slip, the odds are multiplied:
1.30 × 1.40 × 1.25 = 2.28
The probabilities multiply too. If those three picks really had the chances their odds suggest (77%, 71% and 80%), the chance of all three winning is about 44%. Add more selections and it drops fast. That’s the main reason long accumulators lose so often, and why we suggest keeping slips short.
Finding value in football odds
A bet has “value” when you believe the real chance of it happening is higher than the odds suggest. For example:
- You think a team wins 70% of the time. Odds of 1.60 imply 63%. That’s a value bet.
- Same team, but odds of 1.30 imply 77%. Even though the team is likely to win, the price is too short. No value.
Good betting is less about finding winners and more about finding fair prices. A bettor who wins 55% of bets at 2.00 makes a profit; one who wins 75% of bets at 1.25 loses money.
Other odds formats you might see
British sites often use fractional odds like 5/4 or 2/1, and American sites use moneyline odds like +150 or -200. To convert fractional odds to decimal, divide the two numbers and add 1: 5/4 becomes 1.25 + 1 = 2.25. If you’re curious about the maths, Wikipedia’s article on odds explains it in more detail.
Putting it into practice
Every tip on our site shows its odds. Try the 1 ÷ odds trick on a few of today’s picks on the home page and you’ll see how the market rates each game. If you’re not sure what a tip code means, read our guide to football betting codes. Whatever the odds, only stake what you can afford to lose. Our responsible gambling page has advice on keeping it under control.
Related guides
- Football Betting Codes Explained: 1X2, 1X, GG, Over 1.5 and More
- Bankroll Management for Football Betting: How Much Should You Stake?
- How to Build an Accumulator: 7 Rules for a Safer Slip
- Why Favourites Lose in Football: 8 Things to Check Before You Bet
Frequently Asked Questions
What do odds of 1.50 mean?
A ₦1,000 stake returns ₦1,500 if it wins. The bookmaker rates the outcome at about a 67% chance.
Are lower odds safer?
They win more often, but not always. Odds of 1.25 still lose about one time in five, and they pay much less when they win.
How do I calculate accumulator odds?
Multiply the odds of every selection together. Three picks at 1.30, 1.40 and 1.25 give total odds of about 2.28.
What is a value bet?
A bet where you believe the real chance is higher than the probability implied by the odds.
